Arif Samad Email & Phone Number

Responsible for forecasting fares income and passenger demand for four diverse London Rail businesses: heavy rail London Overground, light rail Docklands Light Railway, London Trams and the Emirates Airline cable car. Revenue being a key element in the Profit & Loss account, this role supports the Financial Planning and Analysis team with revenue projections and demand and yield variance analysis. Key achievements include:• Forensic analysis and business partnering uncovered £1.3m misallocated fares income• Recovered £0.5m compensation from Southern Railways for poor service provision• Demand and fares yield analysis of new devolved Greater Anglia lines transferred to TfL• Elasticity based 5 year revenue and demand forecasts of each London Rail business

London, United Kingdom

I was the expert lead for TfL’s bus and Tube fares revenue and demand forecasting activities. I developed and advanced econometric models, and collaborated with senior management across TfL’s operating/contracted businesses and finance teams to develop robust financial forecasts that were owned by the business. Across all modes, TfL generates over £4.7 billion in fares revenue per annum.• Quantitative analysis of bus demand. An award winning, original piece of analysis not only explaining, but quantifying, the main drivers of London bus demand over the last 15 years. The bus analysis advised Peter Hendy, the then TfL Commissioner, to build the case for greater investment in London’s bus services. The senior Bus Leadership Team also presented my analysis at an international benchmarking conference in Brussels in December 2013.• Robust and creditable modal (London Underground and bus) fare revenue and passenger journeys forecasts were generated quarterly based on a clear rationale linked to recent trends and the latest business planning assumptions. I was accountable for coordinating, generating and validating the forecasts to ensure delivery of sound, high quality and timely projections.

London, United Kingdom

I was responsible for advanced data analysis and analytics exploiting latest research methods.• I built a modelling tool to forecast the number of Killed and Seriously Injured (KSI) on London’s roads. During the 2012 Olympics, using analytics I provided business critical real-time travel demand analysis and was presented a Gold Award for exceptional collaborative behaviours that enhanced TfL’s reputation.

London, United Kingdom

I provided expert economic analysis ensuring transport policy development was underpinned by robust evidence based assessments to maximise the influence of TfL and the Mayor of London.• Strategic studies: Analysing outputs from RailPlan - TfL’s public transport strategic model - showed increasing demand for car travel in the capital, in contrast to recent trends. I persuaded senior management to explore, using econometric analysis, the contributions of key demand drivers - population, employment and public transport fares and provision – to changes in the demand for car travel. I formulated the conceptual framework underlying the research and commissioned a study looking at 30 years of data to quantify the impact of key demand drivers. I project managed and delivered the study within budget and timescales with the quality of research exceeding senior management expectations.

London, United Kingdom

I led the business and economics impacts monitoring programme for the congestion charging scheme. • Policy monitoring and evaluation: I defined the research priorities, specified research briefs, procured and coordinated the delivery of a varied set of research projects. In the final aspect of the role I précised the complex research, drawing conclusions in a clear and concise narrative for TfL’s highly influential Annual Congestion Charging Impacts Monitoring reports.

London, United Kingdom

My main responsibilities were to undertake financial and operational research to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of LU operations. Key achievements, responsibilities and knowledge gained included:• Exploiting econometric models I generated LU’s annual fare revenue forecast of £2.6bn• Presented several revenue forecasting governance papers to LU’s Finance Board, successfully persuading directors about the robustness of the elasticity based forecasting methodology• Undertook statistical analysis of Tube data to quantify the revenue impact of the Chancery Lane train derailment in response to a corporate liability claim• Line managed staff to deliver reports monitoring forecasts against performance

London, United Kingdom

As a senior consultant in the Steel research team my principle role was to provide expert industry intelligence, insight and understanding on strategic economic issues affecting steel and steelmaking raw materials markets. I developed an analytical model of the global metallics market, which brought together production, consumption and trade in three raw material commodities. I successfully completed a wide range of projects from monthly market outlooks to in-depth research studies producing pricing forecasts on a range of steel products in a variety of international markets.

Postgrad Diploma, Econometrics, Pass

Postgraduate Diploma. Econometrics

Ma, Development Economics, Pass

MA. International Business and Economic Development

Econ Bsc, Economics And Business Finance, 2:1

BSc. (Hons.) Economics and Business Finance