For over 5 years I led the Indirect Tax Forecasting team in HMRC’s analytical function, KAI. This was a fast-paced OBR facing role with the key outputs being 5-year receipts forecasts totalling around a third of Exchequer revenue at £220bn per year pre-Covid-19.At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic I led my team to deliver brand-new forecast models for key indirect taxes, guiding the OBR's forecasts for a swift estimate of the shock to the Exchequer finances. I’m proud of leading and individually developing 15 team members, proactively driving numerous model development projects, improving the quality of team outputs, and crucially delivering unprecedented new fiscal forecasts in challenging circumstances, particularly reflecting the emerging Covid-19 pandemic.

Modelling and forecasting the UK tax gap - modelling the impact of various scenarios on the tax gap (e.g. population shifts; changes in the macroeconomic climate).

I was responsible for producing the UK Corporation Tax gap estimate for large businesses. In addition, as Chief Editor of 'Measuring Tax Gaps', I co-ordinated the publication and oversaw checking of the publication text, tables, charts and layout to meet Government Statistical Service (GSS) standards.

I provided statistical analysis and advice with respect to the quota and effort management of UK fisheries. I produced monthly forecast profiles of quota uptake and advised the UK quota manager on total catch limits. In addition, I produced, co-ordinated and delivered improvements to the annual Sea Fisheries Statistics publications (National Statistics).

I explored whether different types of population dynamics, such as stable, cyclic, chaotic or declining populations, are correlated with various life history traits and/or ecological variables such as latitude or habitat type. I ran different mathematical models to find which density-dependent models best fitted the time series data and performed literature reviews to research ecological characteristics.