Carolyn Meinel Email & Phone Number

NFER is a forecasting program designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and high-risk geopolitical events for U.S. Government policymakers. INFER empowers scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision-making. The public portion of INFER is one of multiple forecasting sites operating as part of this programINFER now is being managed by RAND https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/rand-program-update, with assistance from Cultivate Labs https://www.cultivatelabs.com/.INFER rated me as its third-best forecaster in 2023 https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/best-of-2023 and the sixth-best in 2023 https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/best-of-2022.

Us

Consulting and freelance writing of magazine articles and books.Cyberadversary Workshop, sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Information Awareness Office. Presented “Evolution of the Hacker Armies,” Aug. 13 – 14, 2002.DARPA’s Off-line Intrusion Detection Program. Provided the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory with exploits against Windows NT systems for testing against intrusion detection systems, 1998-1999.Consultant to the Computational Sciences Division of the Utah State University Space Dynamics Laboratory, 1995-1996.Assisted Computing Devices Inc. in winning contract for payload computers for the Teledesic communications satellite constellation.Assisted American Paging, Inc. in research and evaluation of narrowband Personal Communications Services (digital cellular data) market and technology opportunities, 1995.Analysed impact of emerging freight technologies on the California economy for the California Trade and Goods Movement Study. Wrote portions of its report, 1994-95.Principal investigator for technology transfer contract with Alliance for Photonic Technology. Major accomplishment was to get Sandia National Laboratories in on the ground floor of the Federal/industry Flat Panel Display initiative, which brought several tens of millions of dollars of research funding into the Labs. Helped to lay ground for a later CRADA with Teledesic, 1992-93.Assisted a number of Japanese firms (through various U.S, intermediaries) in scouting small high technology companies for investments and in gathering intelligence on competitors. Examples: Shimizu, Mitsui, IHI. 1988-92.

Research led by Wharton Professors Barbara Mellers and Philip Tetlock revealed that within one year or less, by forecasting on noncontroversial topics, college students tended to moderate their unrelated social and political beliefs. More recent research including Mellers and Tetlock, and led by Christopher Karvetski and Carolyn Meinel, revealed better ways to determine the accuracy of a crowdsourced forecast by using AI to evaluate their explanations of their forecasts.Additionally, research activities in Good Judgment Open, Good Judgment 2.0, the superforecaster team with Good Judgment, Inc., and INFER have revealed that forecasting participants also build new friendships and communities as a side effect of working together on forecasting problems. A crucial factor appears to be primarily forecasting on topics that have not been staked out by disinformation or political activism claims. This avoids getting into arguments on topics that can spark highly emotional effects. Research shows that the people most able to rescue victims of today's hate/fear complex are their real world (not online!) friends and family. BestWorld is being designed to enable our participants to cultivate real-world friendships and work together to build better lives for themselves along with developing ways to encourage friends and family to escape these hate/fear communities.We believe that this must be done transparently. Participants must be advised that participation may cause them to see other people in a more understanding and kind manner, and almost certainly improve their abilities to foresee the future. We also will advise them that by signing up, they are agreeing to us using whatever they post to our site for scientific research.

.: Executive SummaryTHE INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC AND INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES is a non-profit 501(c)(3) charitable research institute created to address critical global challenges through advanced science and technology. The Institute seeks practical solutions to selected global issues through international collaboration, research and scientific exchange of the world's leading scientists and technologists. The Institute provides a forum for performing focused studies, international seminars and symposia and operates state of the art physics and simulation and modeling research laboratories to identify, develop and commercialize technical solutions to selected global challenges.

Several of my articles were well enough received that they were reprinted in books or other magazines. For example, my Sept. 2001 article in Scientific American, "Code Red for the Web," was reprinted in the book, Best American Science Writing 2003, and in a college textbook, Science and Society 03/04. Some of my books went into multiple editions, for example Guide to Electromagnetic Launch.

This was a project on how to forecast geopolitical events, using thousands of members of the public, using only unclassified sources. It was funded by the Intelligence Advance Research Projects Agency, http://iarpa.gov. I was one of several thousand volunteers, finished #3 out of a cohort of 2805. We operated alone --as compared to other experimental cohorts who worked in teams. However, we received up to 20 comments each day from other forecasters explaining why they made their forecasts. The results were excellent, see for example, http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent

This project, Happy Hacker, and its associated website are inactive. They were based largely upon my Guides to (mostly) Harmless Hacking and associated books I've written on this topic. I've enjoyed writing how-tos for fun, safe and legal things you can do with computers and communications, even practical jokes. It is easier to learn about technical matters if it is fun. In addition to tutorials about shell and C programming, my website used to delve into hilarious things like how to search and edit compiled programs to enable them, when running, to change the words that appear in error messages -- just one example.

Creating final reports on seminars on computer security.

Testing the Brickserver version of Linux for security flaws.

Examples: Double Eagle program, an application of neutral particle beams; Barrage ultra-long distance guided projectile program.Publications: “Particle Beam Probe for Lunar Resource Mapping,” Carolyn Meinel, A. J. Toepfer, et al. Proceedings of the AIAA/Jet Propulsion 2nd International Conference on Solar System Exploration, Aug. 22-24, 1989.“Remote Resource Mapping of Solar System Bodies,” Carolyn Meinel, A. J. Toepfer, et al.,Engineering, Construction, and Operations in Space, Proceedings of the Space 90 Conference, April 23-26, 1990, (American Society of Civil Engineers, 1990) pp. 266-273.

Market forecasting.

DARPA SETA Supported DARPA's Strategic Technology and Tactical Technology offices. Rapid Optics Fabrication Technology Program; asteroid hazards, leading to the Spacewatch Program; performed orbital mechanics and satellite sensor analyses, wrote computer simulations to accomplish this; also on behalf of DARPA/STO coded a portion of a U.S. Navy computer wargame; electromagnetic guns; Impactor Technology Program.Publications while in this position: Carolyn Meinel, et al, "Opportunities for Long-Range Hypervelocity Kinetic Kill," Proceedings of the October 22-25, 1985 Strategic Systems Symposium held at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, classified Secret.Metal Carbonyl Refining and Vaporforming for Asteroidal Ores, pp. 160-164.Space Manufacturing 5: Engineering with Lunar and Asteroidal Materials, Proceedings of the Seventh Princeton/AIAA/SSI Conference, May 8-11, 1985 (AIAA, 1985)“Strategies to Minimize Delta V Costs of Extraterrestrial Resources,” Carolyn Meinel, Kelly Parks, National Space Strategy: A Progress Report, Proceedings of the 18th Annual Electronics and Aerospace Systems Conference (IEEE Eascon ’85) 1985.“Options for Hypervelocity Kill against Aircraft,” Carolyn Meinel and Stephen Saunders, Proceedings of the October 28-30, 1986 Strategic Systems Symposium held at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterrey, California.“Hypervelocity Then and Now,” by Harry Fair, acknowledged “for assistance in developing this paper,” International Journal of Impact Engineering, Hypervelocity Impact, Proceedings of the 1986 Symposium, Oct. 21-24, 1986, pp. 1-11.

Political activism supporting strategic missile defence.

Wrote a monthly column on space technology.

Publisher of the L-5 News magazine; political activism, most significantly our successful blockage of the 1979 Moon Treaty.

Master’S Degree, Industrial Engineering

Bachelor'S Degree, General Studies: Creative Writing, Mathematics, Systems Engineering