Chief Macro Strategist
CurrentProvide forecasts and input regarding the economy, equity markets, interest rates, commodities, precious metals and currencies to both institutional and high net worth investors. Author of an investment letter entitled the Contrarian Value Advisor which is in its twentieth year of publication. Strong macro skills and contrarian philosophy developed over many years have allowed me to make many successful calls, often at odds with a consensus that focused in the wrong direction. Recent examples include: 1) my forecast in 2018 when 10yr was 3 1/4% that 10yr yield would fall to 1/2% when virtually all of Wall Street was expecting rates to rise sharply. 2) in 2018 when oil was $75 I forecast that oil prices would ultimately decline to $10 in the coming bust. In 2014, I predicted oil would fall to $40 when it was $107 & most analysts were bullish 3) I have been a consistent but lonely voice forecasting that we were headed for the first global deflationary contraction in eighty years. Until very recently the consensus was calling for inflation.