• Led rescue and redeployment of failed fuel price prediction product, delivering $8M/yr in value. Worked directly with pricers to clarify the evidence needed to bring their pricing decisions closer to Shell strategy. Specified, built and deployed the required machine-learning tools for competitor price prediction.• Delivered value through others by providing technical expertise and oversight to >$1B/yr Upstream Gulf of Mexico Exploration prospect ranking (statistical analysis) and portfolio working interest optimization (scenario modelling)• Released internal "Inner Source" software libraries for statistical backtesting of forecast models using Spark• Published best-practice guidance for practitioners to use with Shell’s data science implementation standards• Served as internal Technical Authority, reviewing data science work for correctness and completeness

• Impacted high-stakes decisions about well design and field development as embedded statistical/decision SME, yielding *tens of millions of dollars in increased production and reduced costs*:• Put into practice Bayesian decision-trial-lookback tools and workflow used by well engineering and asset development teams to value uncertainty reduction, balance trial size and cost, and set success/failure criteria for field trials• Worked across disciplinary boundaries to connect the right technical expertise (including from specialist machine learning teams and vendors) to the right business problems• Led the effort to raise the whole organization's capacity for statistical thinking; coached technical staff through hands-on engagements to target analysis work at the most valuable uncertainties

• Drove more credible Shales-wide plans by developing drilling schedule and cost learning curve guidance• Improved drilling performance evaluation with regression-based “should cost” benchmarking methods• Provided extensive quantitative support for many different projects, ranging from Markov chain probabilistic modeling of staff advancement to statistical drivers of safety performance to full-field unconventional development "what-if" scenario cost modeling

Expert at helping teams get answers and make high-value technical-economic decisions:• How is our performance related to what we’ve done in the past? (Statistical data analysis and modeling) • Do we understand the key issues and uncertainties that impact our decisions? (Decision Analysis)• If we change what we’re doing, or do something totally new, what will really drive our costs? (Process-based Cost Modeling)• How does our performance compare to our competitors? (Statistical benchmarking)• Is reducing uncertainty worth the cost of trials? (Value of Information)• How do we design an informative and efficient trial? (Design of Experiments)• What is the value of a larger vs. a smaller trial? What are the right success/failure criteria? (VOI-based trial design)I also developed custom spreadsheet models and software. (Look up jtolle on Stack Overflow to see more about me as a programmer.)

Wore many hats as core member of engineering team developing new plastics, composites, and tooling manufacturing technology for lightweight vehicles and raising over $10M in capital:• Led a process-based cost modeling consulting practice in the energy industry in 2010-2011 that generated $2M in revenue• Developed and deployed software libraries and tools for spreadsheet model building that were the foundation for agile development of cost models for new and early-stage manufacturing processes (see careers.stackoverflow.com/jtolle for details)• Repeatedly enabled my teammates by developing custom software, including cost models for new manufacturing processes, several prototype machine control systems, and a knowledge management system• Worked with specialist computational vendor partners to implement advanced mold-filling and cooling simulation and optimization software incorporating fluid flow, heat transfer, and reaction kinetics• Set up, operated, and managed a rheological testing and thermal analysis laboratory for novel polymer materials

• Payment Processing System (for Sears Payment Systems, with Brahma Software)• Board Game Calculation Engine• Remote Salesforce Automation Application (for SalesKit Software)

• Personal Computer Sales Configuration Application (with Trilogy Development Group)• Remote Field Service Technician Application (for GE Appliances)