Justin N. Email & Phone Number

Washington, DC, US

Northern Virginia, Virginia, United States

Washington, District Of Columbia, United States

Washington, District Of Columbia, United States

Washington, District Of Columbia, United States

Rochester, New York Area

• Project on nuclear weapons and proliferation, and foreign policy concessions
• Gathered first-time longitudinal historical data from 1945 to present of 1.5 million+ observations across 140 factors (e.g., natural resources, industrial capacity, economics and labor, and financial)
• Analyzed data using econometric models (MLE, SEM, GAM, time series, hierarchical modeling, count, duration)

Rochester, New York, United States

• Extensively researched the effects of alliance formation on conflict initiation against third parties
• Coded and analyzed historical dataset of 3.5 million+ observations (1928-2010) in PostgreSQL
• Used ML (conditional logistic regression with bespoke loss function, survival models) to support theory that alliances attract more hostile countries
• Derived new MLE-based algorithm to correct bias from self-selection into alliances
• Used machine learning (ML) dimensionality reduction (PCA) and distributed computing to increase performance by 61%, recall accuracy by 11%, and overall out-of-sample accuracy by 5.7%

Rochester, New York, United States

• Examined foreign aid and emergency lending decisions by the IMF, World Bank, and top donor nations to assess their strategic interaction and lending behaviors
• Created predictive models of lending likelihood using random forests with XGBoost to account for multiclass outcomes with 85% predictive accuracy in out of sample testing data and 98% recall on 2 million+ observation.

Rochester, New York, United States

• Examined rigorously why allied nations defect when cooperating on counterterror operations
• Utilized game theory and econometric causal inference paradigms (matching, propensity scores, regression discontinuity) on dataset of 20,000+ observations showing that states become reliant on future foreign aid making.
• Created new stochastic game theory model for international foreign aid and cooperation to explore incentive-compatible solutions, by applying mechanism design and bargaining theory

Rochester, New York, United States

• Analyzed how countries manipulate WTO adjudications to venue shop when resolving commercial disputes over countervailing duties and tariffs, anti-dumping actions, and import subsidies
• Using probit choice models, showed that autocracies strategically manipulate international commercial dispute procedures to achieve better settlements from democracies
• Created first dataset of 105,138 all possible WTO dispute cases to solve data selection bias problem and used statistical multiple imputation to resolve missing data
• Analyzed dataset of trade disputes across 30 markets (e.g., aviation, durable goods, oil & gas, clothing) and 100+ features (e.g. economic, trade, institutions) using econometric choice models (logit/probit with.

Memphis, Tennessee, United States

• Consulted for large regional non-profit client to assess effectiveness of education and public health initiatives supported by federal grants, to help win $3 million in grants from U.S. government
• Created plan to improve 6 statistical analyses of interventions by correcting self-selection, treatment, and detection bias using causal inference (propensity score matching, fuzzy RDD design)
• Collected raw demographic data in the form of surveys across 30 counties to expand 4 large datasets in MySQL and resolved missing data using K-nearest neighbors and multiple imputation
• Managed/mentored 3 junior analyst interns in data analysis techniques and project management

Greater New York City Area

• Created plan with States Ratings Group and Methodology Development Group to assess and change the internal rating system of states
• Developed a new proprietary quantitative scoreboard model with 63 economic, financial and governance factors to improve credit policy methodology and identify emerging risk trends
• Collaborated with Senior State Analysts to analyze credit risk and rate 300+ U.S. state debt offerings using liquidity, discounted cash flow and market analyses, and pricing algorithms
• Visualized and explored data using Tableau, Excel, and R

Doctor Of Philosophy (Ph.D.), Political Science

•Program is ranked 6th in the U.S., and is known for its unique approach emphasizing analysis of quantitative evidence. It is regarded as.

Master Of Arts - Ma, Political Science And Government

Bachelor'S Degree, Economics & Political Science (Magna Cum Laude)

Activities and Societies: Chi Psi, Rutgers Fencing Club