Mark Himmelstein Email & Phone Number

Atlanta, Ga, Us

Atlanta, Georgia , Us

I am leading development of a Forecasting Proficiency Test, a psychometric tool for evaluating the skill of individual forecasters. I am also collaborating on several other projects involving how to structure teams of forecasters, how to utilize intersubjective methods to improve and evaluate forecasts, and how people think about extremely low probability events.

Bronx, Ny, Us

This is the final fellowship available to doctoral candidates at Fordham university, only awarded to scholars who have already proposed and begun research on their dissertation. It is a competitive merit-based fellowship awarded to candidates with innovative dissertation topics and who have secured external funding for their research.

Bronx, Ny, Us

Awarded a highly competitive distinguished research fellowship by Fordham's graduate school of arts and sciences. The fellowship recognizes my research accomplishments and importance to date and the importance of my dissertation topic. It allows me to work full time on my dissertation without teaching or other departmental responsibilities.

Bronx, Ny, Us

Primary instructor of record and supervisor for lab instructor/Teaching Assistant for graduate level Introduction to Statistics course

Bronx, Ny, Us

Due to my successful research track record, I was awarded an Anne Anastasi research fellowship beginning in January 2022 by Fordham University. The fellowship is designed to provide funding so that I can pursue original research that can lead to additional publications and contribute to my dissertation development. I am currently focused on two projects at different stages of development.The first is analysis and reporting of a forecasting study our lab conducted during 2020 based on an NSF grant. Many forecasting studies are based on data collected during large scale forecasting tournaments, in which participants self select among hundreds of forecasting problems. This was a more experimentally controlled study, in which several hundred forecasters all made predictions about the same 12 questions at different time intervals. The second is development of my dissertation topic. Research indicates that people use advice differently depending on whether or not they are asked to make their naive beliefs, prior to receiving that advice, explicit. I am currently conducting a series of simulations based on existing data to determine if it would be possible to treat people's naive beliefs as missing data, to attempt to measure the persuasive effect of advice when people's prior beliefs are not explicitly measured. Preliminary results are promising, and I am in the process of applying for funding to begin conducting initial empirical experiments.

Bronx, Ny, Us

Lab instructor for two graduate level courses in Fall 2021:Introduction for StatisticsExperimental DesignI was responsible for instructing students in practical implementation and programming of theoretical material taught in the lecture section. Both courses used R. I also translated previous material from SAS for Experimental Design, in addition to developing my own original material and R code.

Bronx, Ny, Us

Lab instructor for four coursesGraduate level:Hierarchical Linear Models (Fall 2020)Advanced Multivariate Statistics (Spring 2021)For both courses I instructed students on programming and practical implementation of theoretical material from the lecture section. Previous sections of these courses used SPSS and SAS, but, as a result of an initiative I supported, we decided to focus on R, which required me to translate past materials and develop new materials of my own.Undergraduate level:Research Methods (Fall 2020, Spring 2021)Guided students through design, implementation, and analysis of independent research projects using Qualtrics and SPSS.

Bronx, Ny, Us

Fordham was one of several institutions belonging to the SAGE research team, a competitor in the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC). The HFC was a project funded by Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), the research wing of the United States Government Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The goal of the project was to distill and combine the strengths of human judgment and artificial intelligence to develop an accurate and scalable forecasting system. My responsibilities included:-Building models that extract trait information to help identify potential "Superforecasters" and optimize aggregation weighting schemes for crowdsourced judgments-Lead series of side experiments testing how advice from different sources, such as machine learning model outputs or human experts, influences forecasting behavior-Write R Scrips to process raw forecast data and score for accuracy at different levels of granularity (how accurate is a particular forecast? How accurate, on average, is a particular forecaster/machine model?)-Prepare progress reports and share presentations at bi-annual site visits with project leadersWork on this project lead to the publication of a paper titled Foresting Forecaster Accuracy: Contributions of Past Performance and Individual Differences in the journal Judgment and Decision Making, for which I was awarded the di Finetti prize for outstanding paper by an emerging scholar from the European Association of Decision Making. Two additional papers based on this work are currently under review, and I presented results during numerous conferences.

Bronx, Ny, Us

Research Assistant in the laboratory of Dr. Dean McKay. In Dr. McKay's lab we performed treatment studies using empirically supported cognitive behavioral therapies for disorders related to anxiety, disgust, and depression. My responsibilities included:-Performing structured clinical interviews during participant intake-Attended weekly lab meetings-Trained additional research assistants in interview administration and assessments-Trained in Structured Clinical Interview for the DSM-5 (SCID-5) and the Anxiety and Related Disorder Schedule for DSM-5 (ADIS-5)

Bronx, Ny, Us

Beginning with my Master's Degree and continuing through my PhD, I have worked in the Judgment and Decision Making lab of Dr. David Budescu. I began by assisting senior graduate students with studies on risk perception in both theoretical and applied settings. For example, in one study we looked at the effect of compound lotteries on human judgment, where we compared multi-stage lotteries to single-stage lotteries which had identical mathematical properties. In another, we studied how different graphical representations of risk influenced people's beliefs about climate change information. More recently, I have co-authored a paper on the relationship between cognitive coherence (e.g. if A is bigger than B, and B is bigger than C, A should be bigger than C) and probabilistic judgment, which was published in the journal Decision Analysis.My responsibilities include:-Design experiments testing how different treatments influence human judgment, such as compound lotteries or gain versus loss framing-Program experiments and surveys in Qualtrics for online studies-Develop and validate new scales to measure psychological constructs-Analyze results using statistical software such as R, Python, and SAS-Compose manuscripts for publication submission-Present at conferences such as the Society for Judgment and Decision Making annual conference; the Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making Conference of the European Association for Decision Making; and the Bayesian Crowd conference of the Tinbergen institute

Boston, Ma, Us

Hired to assist a Clinical Psychology PhD candidate with their statistical analyses required to complete their dissertation project. The project is a longitudinal study interested the delayed effects of radiation treatment for brain cancer on the cognitive development of young children of different ages. My role is to fit a series of growth curve models to test these effects. I have also performed a missing data imputation procedure to correct for the fact that certain constructs were measured with age-specific scales for which there is no direct standardization procedure.

New York, New York, Us

Part time legal assistance on the tenant side of landlord tenant issues. Temporary part time position held while I completed my Master's degree.-Analyzed rent history data to calculate overcharge reimbursements and corrected legal rents based on NYC rent regulations-Legal Discovery Document Analysis-Apartment inspections-Composed legal documents

New York, Ny, Us

At the MLBPA, I began as an assistant in the accounting department, before moving to work under former Chief Operating Officer Kevin McGuinness.My responsibilities included:-Analyzed longitudinal trends in player salaries and revenue shares-Explored alternative models of licensing and royalty disbursements-Assisted with player performance analysis in preparation for salary arbitration-Helped manage internal player and agent databases-Accounts payable-Assisted with internal accounting reconciliations

Doctor Of Philosophy - Phd, Psychometrics And Quantitative Psychology

Master’S Degree, Psychology Research Methods

Bachelor’S Degree, Psychology

Education record