Geographer
CurrentNationwide Risk Model for European Gypsy Moth (EGM) (Gericke Cook, Lisa Kennaway, and Paul Sutton)Since its introduction in Medford, MA in 1869, European Gypsy Moth (Lymantria dispar dispar) has expanded its range as an established forest pest throughout the northeastern United States and continues to spread by natural dispersion and anthropogenic introduction. This forest pest can feed on more than 300 woody species, and has the greatest impact on oaks and other hardwood species. Millions of acres of hardwood forest are at risk from EGM each year. The goal of APHIS-PPQ is to define the extent of the gypsy moth infestation and limit its artificial spread beyond the infested area through the use of an active trapping and monitoring program, quarantine implementation, and regulatory programs that limit anthropogenically-driven dispersal mechanisms.This project builds on a 2012 pilot model that utilized GIS overlays to define pest risk on a national scale (see 2012 Fort Collins lab report). In 2013, the Fort Collins Predictive Modeling Team collaborated with invasive species scientists from the Forest Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to build a rigorous statistical model that defines introduction and establishment risk for European Gypsy Moth. The purpose of the model is to allocate national program funding to the states on a risk-based, quantitatively driven risk assessment. A secondary function of the model is to predict geographic regions of highest risk for most effective targeting of limited trapping resources.
