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Specialist in risk modeling, project valuation and analytics for a wide range of industries.Background is in Oil&Gas, both from working in an Oil&Gas company (Petrobras/Brazil) and from providing consulting and training services to Oil&Gas companies in other countries (USA, Canada, UK, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, UAE, South Africa, SE Asia, etc).Partner and consultant at Imagine Risks&Analytics and MBA professor.I have a profound knowledge in Oil&Gas, Energy and Finance, and the ability to translate complex concepts of statistics and business into models in a simple and straightforward way.PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND• Imagine Risks and Analytics (2016-Present): Founder and Consultant• The Ferryfield Group (UK, 2024-Present): Senior Consultant• Lumivero (EUA, 2022-Present): Senior Consultant• Palisade Corporation (EUA, 2012-2022): Senior Consultant• Petrobras (2006-2012): Risk Management• InovAtiva, Ministry of Economy (Brazil, 2018-Present): Volunteer mentor of startups• IPOG - Instituto de Pós-Graduação (Brazil, 2022-Present): MBA Professor• Saint Paul Business School (Brazil, 2019-Present): MBA Professor• MBA in Finance, Investments and Risk (FGV)• M.Sc. and B.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering (UFSC)• Certified Energy Risk Professional (GARP, Global Association of Risk Professionals)• Fluent in English, Spanish and Portuguese• Solid international experience with consulting and training services provided to companies in 25 countriesSKILLS AND EXPERTISE• Risk management and quantitative risk analysis• Valuation, cash flow, CFaR, VaR• Pricing of derivatives and options• Forecast models with regression, time series, neural networks and machine learning• Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic optimization, decision trees• Excel, VBA, R, Python, @RISK, ModelRisk• Project, Primavera Risk, Tamara, Safran• Evaluation of risk exposure, and translating them quantitatively into useful information for the decision making process• Synthesizing and communicating complex ideas and concepts from math/statistics/finance in a simple and straightforward wayPREVIOUS CONSULTING AND TRAINING CLIENTS• Most large Oil&Gas majors/IOCs• Most important NOCs in the Middle East, South America, and SE Asia• Mining companies in North America, South America, and Africa• Utility companies in Canada, US, Europe, and South America• Construction companies in the US, and Brazil• Consulting firms• Investment banks and insurance companies in the US, and Asia• Government in different countries (finance, defense, aerospace, infrastructure, World Cup hosts, etc)
Imagine Risks And Analytics
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Principal ConsultantImagine Risks And Analytics Jan 2016 - PresentSão Paulo Area, BrazilCONSULTING AND DEVELOPMENT OF QUANTITATIVE MODELS FOR:• Risk analysis of costs, schedule and economic feasibility of projects• Valuation of investment opportunities and projects• Analysis of cash flows, CFaR, VaR• Pricing of derivatives and options• Predictive analytics and forecasting models• Training on risk analysis, statistical methods and decision theory for professionals of all levels of expertise• Excel, VBA, R, Python, @RISK, DecisionTools, XLSTAT, ModelRisk• Project, Tamara, Safran Risk, Primavera Risk AnalysisEXPERTISE IN:• Valuation, discounted cash flow, NPV, IRR, payback time, derivatives, options• Monte Carlo simulation, regression, stochastic models, time series, neural networks, machine learning• Portfolio and resources optimization, stochastic optimization, decision trees• Evaluate the risks a project/client is exposed to, and translate them quantitatively into useful information for the decision making process• Synthesize and communicate complex ideas and concepts from math/statistics/finance in a simple and straightforward way
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Senior ConsultantThe Ferryfield Group Jan 2024 - PresentConsulting work and training on risk analysis, statistical methods and decision theory for a wide range of companies/industries and professionals of all levels of expertise.• Consulting services in risk management for a variety of clients and industries;• Training services for professionals of all levels of expertise and positions, including C-level;• Webinars and articles on quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. -
Senior ConsultantLumivero Feb 2023 - PresentConsulting work and training on risk analysis, statistical methods and decision theory for a wide range of companies/industries and professionals of all levels of expertise.• Consulting services in risk management for a variety of clients and industries;• Training services for professionals of all levels of expertise and positions, including C-level;• Webinars and articles on quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. -
Senior ConsultantPalisade Corporation May 2012 - Feb 2023GloballyConsulting work and training on risk analysis, statistical methods and decision theory for a wide range of companies/industries and professionals of all levels of expertise.Work globally, based out of New York City, São Paulo and New Orleans.• Training and development of models using Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, optimization under uncertainty, regression, time series and neural networks;• Development of quantitative risk models and methodologies for decision analysis, using a wide range of tools and statistical methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, regression, time series, optimization, neural networks;• Consulting and development of quantitative risk models for decision making on capital investment projects (project valuation, real options, production/demand, schedule, cost);• Risk analysis and optimization of capital projects and portfolios;• Consulting services in risk management for a variety of clients and industries;• Training services for professionals of all levels of expertise and positions, including C-level;• Writing and presenting webinars and articles on quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. -
Partner And ConsultantGrc Consultoria Jul 2020 - Jul 2022São Paulo, BrazilConsultoria especializada em Análise Financeira e Gestão de Riscos. Soluções customizadas e exclusivas.
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Risk ManagementPetrobras Petroleo Brasileiro Sa Apr 2006 - Jul 2013Rio De Janeiro, BrasilAnalyst on the Financial Planning and Risk Management Department, modeling the economic feasibility and risks of the investment project portfolio throughout the company.Based at the company’s headquarters in Rio de Janeiro / Brazil.• Analysis of projects for oil production (onshore, offshore and pre-salt), refining, natural gas production, biofuels, renewables, power generation/electricity, etc…• Development of risk models using Monte Carlo simulation;• Development of predictive models for commodity prices (petroleum, refined products, agricultural commodities);• Training on Monte Carlos simulation on Petrobras’ Corporate University.• Development of methodologies and risk models for complex investment projects, as a consultant for project managers;• Development of quantitative risk models for a wide range of medium and large investment projects (above US$ 50 MM) in Brazil, Latin America and Gulf of Mexico, reporting to the Executive Board: oil and natural gas production (onshore, offshore and pre-salt), refining, biofuels, renewables, power generation/electricity, etc…• Modeling of time series (commodity prices, commodity demands and financial series), real options, portfolio optimization under uncertainty;• Writing and presenting articles on quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation;• Offering of periodic training in investment project risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, in Petrobras' Corporate University. -
ResearcherLabcet May 2001 - Apr 2006Florianópolis Area, BrazilDesenvolvimento de programas de simulação para pesquisa/não-comerciais para combustão e sistemas energéticos em FORTRAN;Avaliação econômica de opções tipo fuel switch e eficiência energética em projetos.
Rafael Hartke Skills
Rafael Hartke Education Details
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Mechanical Engineering -
Mechanical Engineering
Frequently Asked Questions about Rafael Hartke
What company does Rafael Hartke work for?
Rafael Hartke works for Imagine Risks And Analytics
What is Rafael Hartke's role at the current company?
Rafael Hartke's current role is Risk Analysis | Predictive Analytics | MSc, MBA, ERPHelping companies build their Quantitative Risk Models.
What is Rafael Hartke's email address?
Rafael Hartke's email address is ra****@****ail.com
What is Rafael Hartke's direct phone number?
Rafael Hartke's direct phone number is +160727*****
What schools did Rafael Hartke attend?
Rafael Hartke attended Fgv, Universidade Federal De Santa Catarina, Universidade Federal De Santa Catarina.
What are some of Rafael Hartke's interests?
Rafael Hartke has interest in Economic Empowerment, Politics, Environment, Science And Technology, Animal Welfare.
What skills is Rafael Hartke known for?
Rafael Hartke has skills like Decision Analysis, Project Valuation, Quantitative Risk Analysis, Time Series Analysis, Decision Trees, Portfolio Optimization, Risk Management, Real Options Analysis, Microsoft Office, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Word, Palisade Decisiontools Suite.
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