Analyst
London, England, Gb
Contributed to establishing and growing a fundamentals-based North American Gas and Power research and consulting practice for this Edinburgh, Scotland based energy research and consulting firm. North American gas research grew from 6 to 80+ clients during my tenure.• Econometrically and stochastically modeled natural gas demand, price, and storage paths. Wrote and published regular market updates. Researched, wrote and published white papers on topical industry issues. • Provided expert market analysis for North American Gas and Power consulting projects. • Presented market message to clients, prospective clients and at industry conferences and forums.• Project managed development of a natural gas storage valuation model. Researched project viability and managed software development of Excel- and Visual Basic-based model to value North American natural gas storage facilities. Value to clients: siting new facilities and optimizing existing capacity.• Co-developed Monte Carlo model to enhance fundamentals-based price outlook, adding specific and identifiable risk components like weather, oil price shocks and hurricanes. Increased price forecast consistency with NYMEX forward market, and improved price forecasting accuracy, credibility and ultimately, client value.• Co-developed industry’s first Global Gas Model. Led North American data and analysis component for ground-breaking global gas supply, demand and shipping model. Solves for a short-term profit-maximizing shipping strategy for clients’ non-contracted liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes and assists in long-term gas production, infrastructure build and shipping strategic planning.• Singly developed a weather forecast / natural gas trading algorithm and authored a white paper detailing this hedging strategy.• Singly pitched, won, completed and delivered small consulting project. Led and delivered market study of client’s proposed Canadian LNG project.