David Payne Email & Phone Number

Washington D.C. Metro Area

Produce forecasts of economic indicators for the Kiplinger Letter, a weekly forecast bulletin that was first started in 1924. Provide economic analyst support for the journalists on staff. Write a weekly column on an economic topic of interest to the general public. Have been interviewed on numerous radio programs on forecasts and other economic topics.

Washington Dc

Advised on forecasting and modeling issues to IHS economists.Extensive forecasting work experience includes modeling with single equations, ARIMA, panel data, seasonal adjustment, cointegration techniques, stationarity, methods of model reduction.Produced and analyzed new data products for use in forecasting:  Investigated use of Twitter sentiment indices in economic and commercial applications, such as early indicators of unemployment and event detection. Forecasted movie… Show more Advised on forecasting and modeling issues to IHS economists.Extensive forecasting work experience includes modeling with single equations, ARIMA, panel data, seasonal adjustment, cointegration techniques, stationarity, methods of model reduction.Produced and analyzed new data products for use in forecasting:  Investigated use of Twitter sentiment indices in economic and commercial applications, such as early indicators of unemployment and event detection. Forecasted movie box office revenue and video sales using Twitter message counts. Responsible for index data quality and stability, implemented many data methodology improvements to improve quality and to distinguish between genders and people/organizations. Created small business employment index using a payroll company’s database. Index anticipates business employment dynamics data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics 6-8 months ahead of publication. Innovated use of population-weighted weather data in retail sales and housing starts forecasts. Designed travel and tourism sentiment indices for a travel association.  Worked on construction and testing of an index used to forecast engineering, procurement, and construction costs. Created an index from the text of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book reports; useful in predicting changes in the Federal funds interest rate and for regional analysis. This showed that useful information can be found in textual data (expanded on work previously done while at Commerce).Expert on diffusion indexes. Conducted analysis and wrote report on “Stress Testing the ISM Manufacturing Index” for the Institute for Supply Management. Show less

Washington Dc

Primary focus on economic developments, policy analysis and forecasting, including briefings for high level Administration officials and participation in inter-agency working groups and international forums. Forecasted quarterly GDP and its components. Beat Blue Chip two-thirds of the time since 1995. Briefed the Secretary of Commerce on the forecast.  Member of the Administration’s Macroeconomic Forecasting Committee (Troika), chaired by Chief Forecaster for the Council of Economic… Show more Primary focus on economic developments, policy analysis and forecasting, including briefings for high level Administration officials and participation in inter-agency working groups and international forums. Forecasted quarterly GDP and its components. Beat Blue Chip two-thirds of the time since 1995. Briefed the Secretary of Commerce on the forecast.  Member of the Administration’s Macroeconomic Forecasting Committee (Troika), chaired by Chief Forecaster for the Council of Economic Advisors. Committee prepared the quarterly GDP forecast used in the U.S. government budgeting process twice each year. Leader, U.S. Delegation, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Short-Term Economic Prospects Meeting in Paris.- Represented the United States as head of delegation.- Presented the U.S. economic outlook to OECD economic forecasting staff and representatives of the governments of OECD member countries.- Responded to questions regarding the official U.S. economic forecast. Wrote weekly report on economic data releases, analyzing economic trends and correlations using charts and bullet points, similar to bank economics departments weekly. Conducted research for the Chief Economist's blog. Achieved knowledge of a broad range of data relationships and data methodology, given ESA’s unique position as the agency containing both the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census. Researched projects as assigned on topics of interest to the Chief Economist, Under-Secretary of ESA, and the Secretary of Commerce. (An example was to review the comparability of the seasonal adjustment procedures used by BEA, Census, BLS, and the Federal Reserve.) Prepared Powerpoint briefings for presentations made to the Secretary. Economics and Statistics Administration Reports: Worked on numerous projects and reports. Show less

Abd, M.S., Economics

PhD program: monetary and macro emphasis

Master Of Public Administration (M.P.A.), Public Policy Analysis

Bachelor Of Arts (B.A.), Economics