Hans Mair Email & Phone Number

Hans Mair - National Security Analyst and Systems EngineerAnalyzing Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) via System Dynamics Analysis, Enterprise Architecture, and Model-Based Systems Engineering. Goal: Digital Twinning, especially Enterprise Digital Twinning.Career focuses have been readiness/preparedness analysis, and complex system Test & Evaluation, leading to a contrarian and disruptive innovation bent. Systems Science applies to predictive models and processes that drive consequential National Security decisions. It is challenging and humbling, because computer model-generated forecasts are simultaneously right and wrong, insightful and deceptive, accurate and inaccurate, trusted and mistrusted. Computer models are good and bad - so how should they be used for consequential decisions?National Security analyses are even more difficult because human biases generate misplaced trust in computer-generated predictions when they are plausible, complex, or pretty. Misplaced trust can also ensue from an artificial dependence on predictions, an authoritative mandate, or even a deceptive label such as 'physics-based' or 'first principles'. (Beware of models that are blindly employed to generate 'virtual data' - and of assessments biased toward supportive evidence.)Fortunately, the Scientific Method provides the justification and process for candidly challenging and extricating bias, misinformation, and other forms of pseudo-science. A contrarian mindset (red-teaming) expects and deliberately debunks pseudo-science, and counters unrealistic expectations, biases, misinformation, etc.

Listed skills include Decision Engineering, Analysis, Contrarian Analysis, Red Teaming, and 27 others.