I lead international and interdisciplinary teams in research at the interface of hydrometeorological forecasting science and decision-making, with a particular focus on anticipatory action within the humanitarian system.I strive to support the development of independent researchers, from undergraduate through to PhD study and beyond. I have successfully supervised a diverse set of PhD candidates from around the world, and actively encourage potential students to reach out to me on any topic related to understanding and improving the prediction and anticipation of floods and their impacts across the globe.

Principal Investigator of the £2M FATHUM project (Forecasts for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action), funded by NERC / FCDO. FATHUM is an interdisciplinary project, our aim is to support the successful implementation of Forecast based Financing locally, nationally and internationally with world-leading science and social science. I undertake research at the interface of hydrometeorological forecasting science and decision-making, and currently supervise PhD students on a number of topics related to understanding and improving the predictability of floods across the globe.

Current statistical techniques to assess ensemble forecast performance at the spatial and temporal scales of interest to decision-makers are prohibited by their large data requirements. The aim of this fellowship is to develop novel statistical techniques that lump together catchments with similar characteristics to create a sufficient sample size of observations to assess performance at the local scale. These developments would have widespread impact; providing a thorough diagnostic evaluation of current forecasting system advantages and limitations at the key spatial and temporal scales and enabling model developments to be prioritised by what produces the largest gain in decision-making ability.

Joint post with the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading

Part-time secondment

Working with Professor Tim Palmer as part of the Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship on a project looking at the utility of ensemble forecasts for decision-making. This project will work closely with researchers in the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society (INSIS).

The EC-funded ‘KULTURISK’ research consortium, with members including ECMWF, JRC, UNESCO-IHE and King’s College London, aims to develop a culture of risk prevention by improving our current understanding of risk and our ability to communicate it, thereby bettering our preparedness for future events. My current work addresses to what extent the (often additional) uncertainties in modelling extreme floods (e.g. 1 in 1000 year) can be represented by the flood inundation models that are currently in use by European organisations such as the Environment Agency in the UK. This follows on from my Ph.D research, and involves the development of techniques to assess whether the uncertain impact of processes such as geomorphological change can be represented within current uncertainty frameworks.

Flood inundation modelling, high resolution LiDAR data, GridStix sensors, uncertainty analysis, remote sensing

Researching the optimal methods of communicating probabilistic weather forecasts to the public

Fluvial and tidal hydraulic modelling using FLOWROUTE for the insurance industry. Writing Flood Risk Assessments for developers, architects, local authorities etc.

Compiling global pollen and charcoal data into a large database for palaeoclimate research worldwide.