Marty Rosenthal Email & Phone Number

Berkeley, California, United States

Good Judgment Inc is a business founded in 2015 to commercialize the tools and human resources developed during the four years of the IARPA ACE Good Judgment Project. As a member of the superforecasters team, I provide forecasts on geo-political and commercial questions, to help quantify hard-to-measure risks.

Strategy implementation through action learning... helping groups establish the capabilities, systems and follow-through needed while they work on delivering high impact initiatives.

In 2011, the Good Judgment Project was one of five research teams selected by the US intelligence community to compete in an unprecedented government-funded forecasting tournament (ACE) for IARPA (the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity). Four years, five hundred questions and over one million forecasts later, GJP emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament, outperforming in accuracy even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data.I was an original research collaborator (i.e. "white rat") in the project and after two years, joined a team of "superforecasters" comprised of the people with scores in the top 2% of more than 3,000 forecasters. The NY Times best-seller "Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction" explains the tools and techniques behind our success.See the attached articles for more information about the project.

Organization and leadership development coupled with Process Excellence (Six Sigma) to drive high performance across a portfolio of software and service businesses.

Change management consultant focused on organizational transformation

Selling and delivering major operations improvement / reengineering projects.

Mba, Real Estate

B.S., Physiological Psychology