AF8 [Alpine Fault magnitude 8]

AF8 [Alpine Fault Magnitude 8] is a collaborative effort to save lives by planning and preparing a coordinated response across the South Island after a severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault. While we can’t predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research has shown that the Alpine Fault has an unusually regular history of producing large earthquakes. Over the last 8000 years, the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times, on average that’s every 300 years. The last significant quake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717. The next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within the lifetime of most of us, or our children. Research conducted by the University of Canterbury, University of Otago and GNS Science has assessed some of the environmental impacts we can expect from the next earthquake of Magnitude 8 or greater on the Alpine Fault. Until now, however, there has been no comprehensive study of the impacts a rupture would have on people living in communities across the South Island and our infrastructure. AF8 (Alpine Fault Magnitude 8) is a three-year programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to address that knowledge gap. It’s a partnership of all the Emergency Management Groups in the South Island, funded by the Government through the Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management’s Resilience Fund. It involves scientists from six universities and Crown Research Institutes, emergency services, lifelines, iwi, health authorities and many other partner agencies.